Wednesday, April 9, 2008

Senator Clinton isn't ending her campaign anytime soon

Conventional Wisdom six months said Hillary Clinton would coast to the Democratic party nomination and the Presidency. Today's CW: she can't win and will surely drop out after Pennsylvania or North Carolina.
This morning Clinton loyalist Lanny Davis ("speaking only for myself", he notes) pens a Wall Street Journal op ed on Obama's Minister Problem. There is nothing new here. Davis asks the same questions that were asked when Wright's sermons first became famous, but he warns the Democrats,
This issue is not going away. If many loyal, progressive Democrats remain
troubled by this issue, then there must be even more unease among key swing
voters....If Mr. Obama doesn't show a willingness to
try to answer all the questions now, John McCain and the Republican attack
machine will not waste a minute pressuring him to do so if he is the Democratic
Party's choice in the fall. But by then, it may be too late (emphasis added).

Whoever wins the popular vote in Pennsylvania and North Carolina wll be hailed as a victor, neither candidate will come away with a huge delegate lead. Senator Clinton has no reason to quit unless and until the superdelegates start to turn to Senator Obama. She has every reason to hold on until a convention credentials committee in Denver decides what to do with the Florida and Michigan delegates. (Both Senators Obama and Clinton probably have a few lawyers on retainer to file injunctions at that point, too.)

Lanny Davis's op ed is a warning: the Clintons are not going to go away.

I expect interesting campaign news before the Pennsylvania primary.